Our results provide initial insights into the AMO-driven spatiotemporal variability in the SST over the AG and prove that the relation is nonstationary over time.
These processes prove that the AMO is a possible candidate for the AGs SST decadal variability, hence enabling a better evaluation of future climate scenarios for this important region. For the air temperature, the positive AMO phase coincides with the occurrence of warm air masses covering all of the Arabian Peninsula, North Africa, and Southern Europe. The underlying mechanisms that explained the AMO-related AGs SST decadal variability can be explained as follows: when the AMO is in a positive phase, the surface northwesterly wind weakens, leading to (1) less advection of the relatively cold air masses from Southern Europe to the AG and surrounding areas, (2) less evaporation, and thus less surface cooling (3) thus, this enhances the water masses stratification and decreases the upwelling process, and vice versa occurs for the negative phase. The AMOs significant role in the AGs SST significant warming trend has been confirmed by the spatial and temporal correlation coefficient, which is above 0.50 and 0.48, respectively, with statistical significance at the 99% level. The spatial trend in the AG is eight times and four times higher than the global value from 1980 to 2005 using HadISST and OISST, respectively. It has been found that there is a significant spatial positive trend, with a maximum of up to 0.6 ☌ per decade over the far northern end, while the time series trend shows a significant shift after 1995, with an average value of about 0.36 ☌ per decade.
The link between the AMO and the AGs oceanic circulations has received little scientific attention. The present study investigated the significant sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend during the summer season over the Arabian Gulf (AG) and its links with the large-scale atmospheric driver, namely, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), from 1900 to 2021.
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